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Monetary policy is normalizing due to economic improvement.

On March 15, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to a range of 0.75-1.00%. The increase was widely expected, and it represented a vote of confidence in the economy. 1

This was the central bank's second rate hike in three months, and Wall Street took it in stride, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 15 points on the day. One reason for that may have been the Fed's latest dot-plot forecast, which remained as it was when the last interest rate adjustment was made in December. The Fed still projects a total of three hikes for 2017. 1,2

When the economy picks up its pace, the Fed responds. In the past several months, job growth and economic output have been steady, and inflation pressure has built to where consumer prices are rising close to 2% a year. The central bank thinks economic growth is now significant enough to warrant a series of small rate hikes. 3

As interest rates slowly rise, retirees & savers could benefit. While higher rates do imply costlier borrowing, there are also some positives that come with tightening. Rising rates are good for interest-bearing bank accounts and fixed-rate investment yields. Higher interest rates encourage banks to lend more, improving the availability of credit.

Rate increases often promote dollar strength, meaning the dollar could buy more abroad - a perk for travelers. Even with slim inventory in the housing market, home sales could now get a boost - prospective home buyers may not want to wait much longer to arrange a mortgage. If interest rate adjustments occur two or three times a year (as they once commonly did), then investors may interpret Fed monetary policy statements less obsessively and focus on market fundamentals to greater degree. 4

As Fed chair Janet Yellen commented to reporters after the Federal Open Market Committee's decision Wednesday, "The simple message is, the economy is doing well." Sustained economic improvement commonly leads the central bank to increase interest rates. 1

Gerard Gruber may be reached at 203.454.3377 or GGruber@HaydenWealth.com

1 - marketwatch.com/story/fed-raises-interest-rates-by-a-quarter-point-sees-two-move-moves-this-year-2017-03-15 
2 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F15%2F17&x=0&y=0 
3 - nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/15/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html 
4 - bankrate.com/finance/federal-reserve/benefits-higher-interest-rates-from-federal-reserve-1.aspx 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Securities and investment advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC 


Oregon State University researchers recently concluded that working just a year past 65 can be good for longevity. Analyzing 28 years of data from the National Institute on Aging-funded Healthy Retirement Study, they found that healthy 66-year-old retirees were found to have had an 11% lower risk of death than those retiring at 65. 4

4 - http://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/051216/why-working-after-retirement-good-your-health.asp


If you are 10 or 15 years older than your spouse or partner, to what degree should that age gap influence your retirement planning? You will want to consider this question, for it may affect many aspects of your financial future – such as your planned retirement dates, how you decide to claim Social Security, and how you choose to invest.

Your age difference will lengthen your total retirement experience as a couple. For example, Social Security projects that the average man turning 62 this month will live 84.6 years and die in 2039. The average woman turning 45 this month is forecast to live 85.5 years and die in 2057. So a hypothetical couple with a 17-year age gap would need to keep a 40-year retirement time horizon in mind if the older spouse or partner retired today, potentially including 17 years alone for the younger spouse or partner.

If you and your partner have an age gap, the two of you might need to work longer and ramp up your retirement saving. A more aggressive approach to investing may be wise. If you are the older spouse, you may want to claim Social Security as late as possible and opt for joint-and-survivor pension benefits. If you are more than 10 years older than your spouse, the calculated Required Minimum Distributions from your 401(k)s and IRAs will end up being slightly smaller than standard. 1,2

1 - tinyurl.com/zthnpdq   
2 - ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi 


Your specific answer to that question depends on the advice of your doctor. Keeping that fundamental in mind, there are some vaccines that many health care professionals advocate for seniors.

Since influenza can aggravate asthma and other pre-existing medical conditions in older people, a yearly flu shot is commonly recommended. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advocates the shingles vaccine for anyone past 60 who has had chicken pox; vaccination could cut the risk of developing shingles by half. The PREVNAR and PCV23 vaccines may help seniors avoid pneumonia, and a booster dose of whooping cough vaccine is recommended every ten years for adults. 3

3 - https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/four-vaccinations-seniors-should-consider-011817.html


A report from the non-partisan American Enterprise Institute says that in 1970, Americans in the middle 40% of U.S. income distribution had saved an average of 33% of their yearly income in retirement accounts. That compares to an average of 210% of annual earnings for Americans in the same income demographic today. 3

3 -bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-04/a-little-optimism-on-the-future-of-retirement


Last December, the 21st Century Cures Act became law, opening the door to the assignment of greater federal funds for medical research and more expedient approval of medical devices and drugs by the Food & Drug Administration.

The Act directs the FDA to use "real world evidence" as well as random clinical trials when evaluating whether medicines and devices should be approved. "Data summaries," instead of full clinical trial results, can now be used to support approval of certain medicines. Drug makers are now allowed to promote off-label uses for medications to insurance companies. Critics of the Act say that it could risk rushing flawed drugs and treatments into the health care market; supporters applaud the Act for giving the FDA the potential to fast-track "breakthrough" devices and drugs. 2

2 - http://www.nextavenue.org/winners-losers-21st-century-cures/


As 2016 ended, the 17th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey appeared and noted a preference for a phased retirement among a majority (53%) of workers polled by the insurance and investment company's Center for Retirement Studies. In fact, 48% of the pre-retirees surveyed felt that their current employer would allow them to continue working in some capacity after age 65.

How many employers are okay with workers staying on the job past 65? Perhaps more than many of us may assume: 72% of the workers Transamerica talked with said that their employer supported the idea, and 48% felt the company culture where they worked was "aging friendly."

On the downside, just 20% of employees surveyed said that their employers would let them ease into retirement through shorter workweeks or flextime, and 26% said that the company where they worked was doing "nothing" to help its employees make retirement transitions. Regarding aging in the workplace, one other statistic from the survey stands out: only 42% of respondents said that they were keeping their job skills up to date, which might be a necessity if they want to stay in the workforce into their sixties. 1

1- http://transamericacenter.org/docs/default-source/retirement-survey-of-workers/tcrs2016_sr_retirement_survey_of_workers_compendium.pdf%20


The following is a reprint of an Article written by Vern Hayden in March of 2011 for The Journal of Financial Planning


Our Highest Value to Clients

A colleague and I were discussing what we do for clients. I asked the question, “What is the most important thing we do for a client?” The answer to some degree depends on what a client is seeking. Some situations are pretty simple and come close to a commoditized answer. Some want portfolio management, a core profit center for many of us. In that case, it is also somewhat dependent on client perspective. Performance may or may not be the main issue. I realize many financial planners suggest that performance should never be the issue if you are doing everything right, but we don’t live in a perfect world and portfolio management and client behavior are filled with ambiguities and inconsistencies and don’t lend themselves to simplistic absolutes.

Ultimately, many clients are looking for something very serious from us. Perhaps that great western writer Louis L’Amour (300 million copies of his books in 20 languages and the only American novelist to receive both the Presidential Medal of Freedom and the Congressional Gold Medal) said it best in one of his last novels Last of the Breed (1986). He said, “What is wisdom? …I have often wondered…It goes beyond mere knowledge, as knowledge goes beyond information.”

Joel Jones, Ph.D., president emeritus of Fort Lewis College in Durango, Colorado, and one of my handball buddies, has an aphorism that blends importantly with L’Amour’s question. He says “Data by itself is not information, information is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom.”

Webster defines wisdom as “accumulated philosophies or scientific learning, good sense, a wise attitude or course of action.” Many times clients want us to be wiser than we are or even can be. We play a multitude of roles with clients and they are forever asking us questions. We of course encourage them to ask questions in our role as financial planners, advisors, wealth managers or whatever else we may call ourselves. Sooner or later many clients will put us into a classic King Solomon- type predicament. They want us to sort through all the variables of an issue and give them a great judgment call. Some even say, “I need your wisdom on this.” The older I get the more I seem to hear the word “wisdom.”

This has caused me to wonder what wisdom really is and do we have it. My inclination is to say that wisdom comes from a synthesis of life experiences and our ability to think and construct a lesson from those experiences. When we answer the tough questions, these cognitive experiences become our basis for judgment calls for clients.

As. Jones says, wisdom is beyond and above knowledge. When a client brings an elderly parent to our office and informs us that the parent has just been diagnosed with Alzheimer’s, what do we do? At his point, it doesn’t help to say, “Let me power up my computer and we’ll find an answer for this.” Technology is of no help on this issue. In fact, I believe technology should always play a subordinate and supportive role to the financial planning process. We must constantly remind ourselves that the planning process, and certainly life planning, is a human process - technology should support it but never dominate. Our world is being de-humanized; to the extent we humanize what we do with clients, we enhance our ability to bond with them.

In August of 2010, Jones and his wife took me to breakfast just outside Durango, near the home of Louis L’Amour’s widow. At breakfast he gave me the book entitled Wisdom: From Philosophy to Neuroscience by Stephen S. Hall. This is one of the most profound books I have ever read. In many situations where we give advice and/or make judgment calls for clients we cannot get all the facts we want or need. The book says, “One of the hallmarks of wisdom, what distinguishes it so sharply from “mere” intelligence, is the ability to exercise good judgment in the face of imperfect knowledge.”

Another interesting aspect of wisdom comes into play when we have to restate an issue or problem for a client. Stephen Kosslyn, Ph.D., head of the psychiatry department at Harvard, discusses a relatively recent concept in cognitive psychology known as “framing” which refers to the way we conceptualize a problem. He said, “People who are wise can interrupt, take a step back, and reframe, and a lot of wisdom probably has to do with looking at a situation differently and reframing.” An example of this would be when we know a client cannot retire on their current path we must “reframe” the situation for them.

Another of Stephen Hall’s points is expressed as follows: “One of the most appealing things about wisdom is the elevated form of self-awareness it inspires….When I consider ‘socio-emotional selectivity theory’, which describes how a person’s emotional priorities change with shrinking time horizons (due to age, illness or unsettling external events like the September 11 tragedy), I can’t help but think about my own station in life…Thinking about wisdom almost inevitably inspires you to think about yourself and your relationship with the larger world.”

Sometimes when we think we are looking at “facts” our sense of wisdom often overrides the information we thought was there originally. For instance, the myriad of questionnaires that are used to determine a client’s tolerance for risk becomes a fantasy that fades in the face of a deteriorating market. Perhaps wisdom would suggest that we recognize that a client’s interpretation of most things in life is dynamic and subject to radical change. Consequently, if we do planning based on a static interpretation of a client’s situational “facts” we may become part of the problem, rather than part of the solution.

A final note from the book Wisdom: we have all met people that give the impression they know everything. These people, of course, are dangerous in the face of wisdom. The book points out a situation with Socrates, known for his famous statement, to “know thyself.” The situation related to a discussion he had with a politician. Hall relates: “Socrates concluded that the politician ‘thinks he knows something he does not know, whereas I am quite conscious of my ignorance. At any rate, it seems that I am wiser than he is to this small extent, that I do not think that I know what I do not know.” With this remark, Socrates defined an essential and indeed profound aspect of true wisdom: recognizing the limits of one’s own knowledge.”

We all gather data and facts and they become information, which forms a certain knowledge base to work with our clients. We translate all of that into our style of financial planning. Regardless of our style of implementing a planning process, the most valuable benefit to clients may be whatever wisdom we can bring to their situation.

So as to the question that opened this article, I told my colleague that wisdom is what I thought was the most important thing we could bring to a client.


Most people think that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulates the investment markets and providers of investment advice, and that the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) regulates the Wall Street sales agents.

But in fact, when it comes to your retirement plan, like a 401(k) account, the chief regulator is actually the United States Department of Labor. Anybody who provides advice to these plans has to meet standards generally defined in the 1975 law known as ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act), which is administered by the Department of Labor.

The list of retirement plan advisors is a long one. There are independent financial advisors who receive fees directly for their work, and act in the best interests of the plan participants. But many plans have been sold by insurance agents and brokers, who creatively introduce a growing array of hidden charges and fees and high-cost investments which, according to analysis by the White House Council of Economic Advisors, together have been quietly shifting roughly $17 billion a year out of the pockets of American workers into Wall Street bonus pools and insurance company coffers.

This month, the Department of Labor issued rules designed to stop these brokers and agents from working in their own interests rather than the interests of American workers. The rule imposes iron-clad fiduciary requirements on anyone who provides investment advice to these plans or plan participants. "Fiduciary" is a legal term that is grounded in case law, but essentially it means that the customer’s interests must be the priority when any investment recommendation is made.

In addition, the Department of Labor extended these new, stronger protective rules to anyone who recommends that consumers roll their money out of a retirement plan into an IRA. Those investment recommendations, too, must also be made in the best interests of the customer. This was intended to prevent insurance agents and brokers from recommending that their customers move money out of the newly-cleaned-up plan into the same high-commission products (like some variable annuities and non-­ traded real estate investment trusts) that they had been recommending in the plan.

How well will this new set of rules protect consumers? At this point, there is reason to be optimistic. The larger sales organizations on Wall Street and in the insurance industry could be sued under this strict fiduciary standard if their brokers and agents continue their current practices, and they would be unlikely to prevail in court. The safest course would be for these organizations to set up divisions made up of people who would be trained to recommend only lower-cost or high-performing investment options, meanwhile giving up the sly hidden fees that they have been collecting for decades.

Alas, the rule specifically states that existing arrangements will be grandfathered, which means that if you're a participant in a plan at your workplace, you may not immediately feel the impact of new fiduciary obligations. But over time, most companies are expected to take a closer look at their fee structure, and as they amend their plans, the money leaks will gradually be repaired.

Eventually, if the analysis is right and workers suddenly find themselves with, collectively, $17 billion a year more in their retirement accounts than they were getting before, we could see a difference in the number of people who can afford retirement. The only losers would be Wall Street bonus pools and insurance agent commissions, which, for most observers, actually make this a win-win.

Furthermore, this ruling dispenses with the traditional "suitability rule" where a broker, agent, advisor did not have to do what is best for a client. The "suitability" standard is still used by brokers, etc. when not dealing with retirement plans.

As CFPs and Investment Advisor Representatives we function as fiduciaries in our relationship with clients.


Many years ago a friend gave me some great advice. He said, “Know what you don’t know and don’t pretend you know it.” So here’s what I don’t know about China’s stock market – I don’t know exactly how the Chinese government runs it. I don’t know how much I can criticize it without going to jail as some outsiders recently have. I don’t know exactly why and how it affects our market. I’m sure there is a lot more I don’t know but this is supposed to be a short blog so –

Here is what I do know about the China stock market - I know it is not a free market. I know the government encourages the Chinese to not only invest in the market but I am told they encourage people to borrow money to invest in the market. I also know the China market was up about 130% over about a 14 month period to June 13, 2015.

So here’s a little personal story about the Chinese stock market. Chengdu has a population of about ten million people and is the center of a lot of business activity. It is about a two and a half hour flight west from the coastal city of Shanghai. .The city has an annual exhibition in June. It has 15 – 20 thousand visitors. Chengdu is also known worldwide as the home of the unique and cute Panda Bears.

I was invited to be the opening Keynote Speaker for the exhibition. I had never been to China before so to be invited for this and have my way paid for business class round trip and a five star hotel was to say the least a very special treat.

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Warren Buffet, the famous American billionaire said, “I have never made a dime trying to predict the future.” There is a well known economist by the name of John Kenneth Galbraith that made the following statement, “The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

To further emphasize how important it is to not rely on short term predictions, I found an article published in Barron’s dated January 6, 2003. In those days, there was a popular program on television every Friday night, called “Wall Street Week”. The popular host, Louis Rukeyser had a rotating panel of twenty two well-known investment experts. These names were some of the most respected in the business of investing. In the article, Barron’s showed what these experts predicted the Dow Jones Index and NASDAQ Index would do for the years 2001 and 2002. These predictions were made one year in advance. These were two significantly negative years in the market during the technology crash. Here were the highs, the lows and actual results of the predictions:

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Once when I was a kid and on vacation with my parents they told me not to climb on a beam that had been placed between two trees. They said I could get hurt. Well for two days I looked at that beam and when nobody was around I climbed up to it. I decided I could go hand over hand across the beam. Sure enough, half way across I slipped and fell and broke my arm. I can still hear the echo of my parents saying, “We told you! You never listen….” After that, I listened a lot more closely, but that was an example of self-destructive behavior. There are lots of examples when it comes to investing. Most of these examples fit into four categories:

• Timing the market
• Chasing hot investments and tips
• Getting scared and selling at the bottom
• Not sticking with a good investment plan

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Regulatory Disclosure: The information on this website has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This website is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any securities. Vern Hayden and Gerard Gruber offering Securities and Investment Advisory and Financial Planning service through Geneos Wealth Management, Inc, Member FINRA/SIPC.  Investments are not FDIC insured. Investments are not deposits of the financial institution and are not guaranteed by a financial institution. Investments are subject to investment risks including loss of principal amount invested.